Rare June Cyclone on the Cards as LPA Takes Shape Over Arabian Sea

Monday, June 5: Before May, most only remembered Mocha as the friendly and delicious choco-coffee drink. Then the ravenous cyclone bearing the same name tore through Myanmar and Bangladesh with a vengeance. Now, barely three weeks later, signs of another intense storm are already afoot.

Last week, weather forecasters warned of a cyclonic circulation brewing over the Arabian Sea, which could very likely intensify into an Extreme Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) — similar to the destructive Mocha — by this weekend. Except this time, the stormy activities are set to take shape off the west coast of India.

So far, everything looks to be on schedule, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting the formation of Low-Pressure Area over the Southeast Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours. As we know, pre- and post-monsoon low-pressure areas are often the harbingers of deadly storms over the North Indian Ocean.

While most models agree that concentration into a severe cyclone is imminent, they still differ on where the system would track. As the conditions like sea-surface temperature remain favourable, the LPA is set to evolve into a Depression by mid-week.

IMD's Monday evening bulletin indicates that the imminent low will barrel nearly northwards within the next two days before intensifying into a Depression in the Southeast/east-central Arabian Sea. As per the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), ECMWF and NCEP GFS indicate we might be looking at a depression by Wednesday (June 7), while IMD's GFS points a day later, by Thursday (June 8).

IMD's GFS, however, shows a peculiar trend with the storm weakening by Thursday and again gaining strength to morph into an intense storm over North Maharashtra's coast by the following Monday, i.e., June 12. Other models argue that the severe cyclone will track north-northwestwards towards the Oman-Yemen coasts instead, sparing the Indian west coast from its wrath.

If cyclogenesis does complete, the upcoming storm will be called Cyclone Biparjoy, a name recommended by our neighbour Bangladesh.

(ALSO SEE: IMD's List of Upcoming Cyclone Names Over North Indian Ocean)

Whatever outcome we see, there remains a chance that Biparjoy might even further stall the already-late Southwest Monsoon season. Pre-monsoon cyclones are notorious for having intense effects on our rainy onset, either speeding it up or slowing it down based on the wind direction of the storm.

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